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My VP Predictions for 2008
By Thomas Alex
Reagan-Ford '80, Bush-Dole '88, Kerry-Gephardt '04--all campaign tickets that were widely anticipated, but ultimately never happened. Now it's my turn to contribute to this list!
Obviously, I have no experience or expertise in predicting election events like Larry Sabato, so please keep expectations low about my predictions. In fact, I would find this article entertaining to read years down the road as I reflect on how wrong I am. Whatever the case, here are my predictions:
McCain-Romney '08
McCain cannot afford to take risks with his running mate. Assuming he waits until shortly before his convention to make his choice, he will have a maximum of 10 ½ weeks to market his VP.
With less fundraising power and friends in the media on his side as Obama to hype his choice, Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal or Sarah Palin would have insufficient time to make an impression on disillusioned, impatient conservatives and testy northern moderates. After all, McCain would probably trail Obama at least 10-15 points after the Democratic National Convention and would need an almost instantaneous boost with middle class voters to get back in the race.
Therefore, he needs to select Mitt Romney in order to reassure alienated economic conservatives and try to capture unemployment weary Michigan and Ohio voters.
Though Romney's Mormonism might discourage some Huckabee Evangelicals and those distrusting of his elite businessman persona, his strengths perfectly cover the key issue of the election: Confidence in the economy.
If Romney is chosen as a VP nominee, concerns over his Mormonism will not be as strong as during the primaries, and his name recognition would be major enough to make an impression on voters quickly.
During the debates, McCain will be able to defend himself effectively against his now infamous comment that he doesn't understand economics as well as he should. With Romney, McCain can confidently say he has brought in the expertise to have that issue covered.
Obama-Richardson '08
Obama's VP pick is tougher to predict than McCain's. He obviously wants to avoid an old dinosaur that may run contradictory to his "Hope and Change" slogan, but he also needs someone with enough credibility and a proven record that offsets accusations his campaign is without substance.
With the democrats firmly grasping the majority of the nation's governors' mansions and the US Senate, they can afford to pick a Tim Kaine, Ben Nelson or Ken Salazar to try and capture their respective swing states.
Jim Webb and Ted Strickland would have been shoo-ins, but their refusals to accept VP offers complicate things. Hillary Clinton and Al Gore are only nominees in the context of a fairy-tale, and Wesley Clark bayoneted himself in the foot the previous week with a pathetic attack on John McCain's military record.
However, Bill Richardson is his best choice. With Richardson, he will be able to solidify his support with Latino voters abroad and for many years to come. He'll easily take New Mexico and will be stronger in neighboring Colorado. His experience as a UN Ambassador brings the Obama ticket instant foreign policy credibility, and his strong bias toward diplomacy directly falls in line with Obama's "let's talk to our enemies" rhetoric.
Though Richardson is lacking in military experience, Obama and his media friends will justify this approach by slamming the notion that victory in the War on Terror can be attained militarily. By hyping a "Diplomacy Administration," Obama will hope to assemble a political movement directly contrasting to the Neo-Conservatives of the early 2000s, which have waned in popularity among voters the last few years.
Key Swing States
Ultimately, this election will once again come down to the State of Ohio. I still believe McCain has the advantage in pulling out wins in Florida, Colorado, Virginia and Missouri. If he wins Michigan by adding Romney to the ticket, he can afford to lose previous Bush red states New Mexico, New Hampshire and Iowa.
However, If McCain selects an unknown who leaves pocket-book minded Michigan and Ohio voters scratching their heads rather than giving them feelings of reassurance and excitement right away, he would have little chance of undoing Obama's convention bounce and would lose in a landslide.
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Thomas Alex, a 2006 alum from the University of Washington, is a freelance blogger, and creative and cultural writer currently residing in Seattle, WA.